Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
